Monica Crowley

I Spent Two Years Campaigning in Iowa and All I Got Was This Lousy T-Shirt

After two long years of political foreplay, the game is finally on.

Tonight, Iowans will kick off the nation's presidential selection process by being the first to cast votes for one (in some cases, two, or even three) of the candidates.  Political freaks (like me) are on the edges of our seats.  But the truth is the results will probably be a lot duller and more indecisive than anyone thinks.

On the Democratic side, it will most likely be a muddied mess, with the top three---Clinton, Obama, and Edwards---clustered in an effective tie.  One may be slightly ahead of the others, and there may be one ahead and a two-way tie right beneath.  But in all likelihood, Iowa won't decide much, and the winning cluster will go on.

On the Republican side, it will most likely be a muddied mess, with the top two---Huckabee and Romney---see-sawing for first, and perhaps clustered in an effective tie.  The ones to watch are McCain---who spent very little time and money in Iowa and yet seems to be having a second life there----and Thompson---who isn't going to win anything (including the nomination) but may get something of a pity vote.

So, barring a breakout win by one of the candidates on either side, all of them will jump aboard their chartered jets at about 10:30pm ET and head east.  Toward New Hampshire.  By this time tomorrow, Des Moines will be a ghost town, Iowa yesterday's newspaper, not heard from again until the night of November 4, when Tim Russert will be wondering aloud where Iowa's electoral votes are going to go.

For the candidates, it's been a long, tiring road to Iowa.  Some of them (Clinton) have been campaigning for four years.  Many of them (Edwards, Romney) have been campaigning for two years.  A few (Giuliani, Obama) have been campaigning for a year.  That's a big investment of time and resources.  They all want to win, obviously.  But how many of them, after all of their blood, sweat, and tears, are going to leave with a lousy T-shirt?

Campaign Meltdown

Already today, we've had wild n' crazy news from several presidential candidates:  Rudy Giuliani admitted to a hospital with flu-like symptoms.  The New York Times reportedly debating whether to print a hit piece on John McCain.  Hillary Clinton's brother, Tony, is a deadbeat dad who owes his ex-wife $75,000 in child support.  Barack Obama is already floating names for his Cabinet.

And the voting hasn't even begun yet.

Twenty-four hour media and backing up the primaries to New Year's Day have turned presidential politics into the Wild West.

I wonder what is sinking in with voters and what sounds merely like annoying background noise.  How much are we absorbing?  Everybody's political baggage is hitting everybody's else's baggage.  The candidates are flailing.  The press is spinning out of control.  We've hit a saturation point---and we're still two weeks away from the first caucus. 

The Europeans are generally unreliable allies but they are good for a few things: food, wine, ancient sites.  They also do their political campaigns right: three to five months, and voila!  New president or prime minister.  That way is easier on the candidates, easier on the system, easier on democracy---and easier on the voters.  Viva la shorter campaign!

The Other Mayor Of New York

The media must be bored already with their latest creation, former Governor Mike Huckabee.  Poor Huckabee: just as he was getting accustomed to his newfound Brad Pitt-like status, he's becoming yesterday's newspaper.  The press is dropping him like a hot potato in favor of the next Latest Thing:

Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York.

Today's New York Post reports that Bloomberg's aides are quietly reaching out to old consultants to check their availability for next year, including the media guy who created his influential TV ads.

The media thought they'd have their hands full covering a past mayor of New York, but Rudy Giuliani seems to have stumbled badly, from which he's trying to recover.  But for now, Rudy is---can you believe it?!----the dull mayor of New York.  Bloomberg is now where it's at.

He's a media dream:  fabulously rich (over $10 billion at last estimate), self-made (Horatio Alger!), single (but dating a smart and accomplished woman!), but divorced with two normal, well-adjusted daughters (Jenna and Barbara 2.0!). 

He also has done something very few other public officials have been able to pull off: he runs the city the way he ran his business.  Most successful businessmen have run for high office, thinking they could just translate business acumen into political savvy.  Once there, however, they discovered that business (the profit motive) and politics (the vote-getting motive) were too different to be run the same way.

Bloomberg showed that it could be done.  Will that ability translate to the presidency?  Maybe.  Polls show that most voters are fed up with politics on both sides of the aisle, so Bloomberg's "post-partisan" appeal might be wider than we know.  The question is: when push comes to shove, will voters roll the dice on an outside-the-box guy?  His support may be wide, but is it deep?

McCain Rides Again

Primary season is a little like Christmas morning: there is a surprise waiting for you at every turn.

Senator John McCain, whom most analysts left for dead months ago (except for us!), has risen again.  In addition to three big newspaper endorsements (the Des Moines Register, the New Hampshire Union Leader, and the Boston Globe), he got the backing today of Senator Joe Lieberman.  Lieberman was a Democrat, until his party got hijacked by the George Soros-band of crazies, who ran him out on a rail.  Although he still caucuses with the Democrats, Lieberman is the only original thinker among them in the Senate.

This is why his endorsement of McCain is so important: part of the mythical appeal of a Michael Bloomberg candidacy is because Bloomberg appears POST-PARTISAN.  He was a lifelong Democrat who became a Republican to get elected mayor of New York, and is now an Independent.  In this era of hyper-partisanship, a lot of people are rejecting the old party lines.

McCain has always been an independent guy.  Sometimes too far off the reservation for some conservatives.  And during this election cycle, he's often been dismissed as an old war-horse.

But if the "new brand" guys---Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee (?)---cancel each other out, there will be an opening, and the old war-horse may ride on through.

Slim Pickings

This is the time when influential newspapers in the key early voting states make their endorsements. So far, Senator John McCain is leading the pack, scoring the trifecta of endorsements from the Des Moines Register, the (NH) Union Leader, and the Boston Globe. Senator Barack Obama has picked up the Globe, while Senator Hillary Clinton has won the hearts and minds of those at the Register.

Endorsements used to mean a lot: in a world before the  proliferation of media, newspapers were the only game in town. What  they said was considered gospel truth, because there weren't too many  other competing sources of information. People held newspapers in great esteem, and when they endorsed someone, it came down to the reader as if on stone tablets from Horeb.

These days, it's more important to have Oprah's endorsement than the Des Moines Register's. Still, all of the candidates hope for them: this weekend, the New York Times reported that Bill Clinton lobbied the editorial board of the Register hard for Hillary's endorsement. I'm sure there was an offer they couldn't refuse in there somewhere.

Begging for endorsements is par for the course, however unseemly. The irony is that while the Republican race is all over map, there is one candidate mopping up the endorsements: McCain.  Meanwhile, the Democrats now have a see-saw of endorsements, for which they are fighting tooth and nail.

The editorial board of the Des Moines Register is made up of three women. Of course they were going to go for Hillary, even without the hard sell from Bill. But they are just 3 votes. On January 3, there will be 150,000 other Iowa Democrats who will make their own endorsements.

The Playoffs Begin

Senator Barack Obama has had enough of the warm-up.  He's ready for the National Anthem and the coin toss.  He's ready to rock.

Senator Hillary Clinton needs a time-out.  She hasn't stretched, her muscles are tight, her game plan needs a complete retooling. 

Obama is Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady before the season: calm, confident, poised, ready to win.

Clinton is Jets Quarterback Chad Pennington before the season: talented but thrown off-kilter by unforeseen events, confidence shaky, throwing interceptions all over the place.

It all comes down to the playoffs:  Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina.  In each of these states, Obama is either ahead or right on Clinton's heels.  When the pressure's on, Brady never chokes; Pennington usually does.  Will Clinton play it like Pennington---or will she loft it like Brady?

Eggs, Potatoes and a Signal

This morning, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg invited Senator Barack Obama for breakfast. They went to a diner in Midtown Manhattan, sat in the window, and chatted up education and homeland security. The press stood on the sidewalk, cameras whirring away.

If Bloomberg and Obama had really wanted to have a private talk, they would have gone behind closed doors at Gracie Mansion or at the apartment of a third party. Instead, they chose a joint in the center of New York and sat so the press could get a clear shot. 

They didn't dine together for their health. This was a signal. It was a signal from Bloomberg to Obama's supporters that if Obama is the Democratic nominee, Bloomberg will not run for president. He will not stand in the way of this young, talented guy. He will defer.

But, if the morning after Super Tuesday, it looks like Hillary Clinton and Bloomberg's other nemesis, Rudy Giuliani, are their party's nominees, Bloomberg will run. That was the other signal.

That's what the Bloomberg-Obama breakfast was about. Eggs, scrambled, not over easy.

The Obama Offensive

In an interview tonight on ABC's Nightline, Senator Barack Obama strikes at the heart of Senator Hillary Clinton's presidential candidacy:

"I think the fact of the matter is that Sen. Clinton is claiming basically the entire eight years of the Clinton presidency as her own, except for the stuff that didn't work out, in which case she says she has nothing to do with it," Obama said.

Courageously, he went on.

Referring to his relationship with his wife, Michelle, he said: "There is no doubt that Bill Clinton had faith in her and consulted with her on issues, in the same way that I would consult with Michelle, if there were issues," Obama said. "On the other had, I don't think Michelle would claim that she is the best qualified person to be a United States Senator by virtue of me talking to her on occasion about the work I've done."

And if that weren't enough to get him outfitted for cement shoes, check out his other body slam into New York's Junior Senator:

"You know, we must be doing pretty well in Iowa. She wasn't paying much attention to what I said before then."

So, in the course of a 15 minute interview, Obama said point-blank that Hillary's "pillow" talk with her spouse wasn't enough to qualify her for the presidency, slashed her for not taking responsibility for her own policy failures, and reminded everyone that he's the frontrunner now.

Not bad for a night's work.  To Hillary's shock, chagrin, and horror, Obama's attacks on her are unencumbered by the Clinton-imposed "rules of engagement."  And for the first time in its long political life, the Clinton Strike Force doesn't have the first clue how to handle it.  Except for playground taunting akin to "I know you are, but what am I?"

Obama has the momentum.  She's lost it.  He knows it. She knows it. 

For the two scorpions in the bottle, the question is:  Who will deliver the fatal sting first?

The Lesson of Bill

Last night's Republican debate featured a long segment of the candidates have a ball beating up New York's Junior Senator.  They treated Hillary Clinton as if she is already the Democratic nominee, not the presumptive nominee, not even the frontrunner.  The actual nominee.

At first blush, this looks like the Republicans fell for her bait.  By spending all of that time talking about her, they played into the perception of inevitability she's worked so hard to create.  They flattered her with all of the attention. They helped to make her coronation even more likely.

But look deeper.  Yes, she looks dominant.  Yes, she's got a lot of money.  Yes, she's way out in front in the polls.  But being that far ahead is no guarantee of winning when people actually cast votes.  Just ask Howard Dean, or the ghosts of Paul Tsongas, Edmund Muskie, or Hubert Humphrey.

Time and again, frontrunners have fallen.  Especially Democratic frontrunners.  John F. Kennedy was an underdog in 1960.  So was James "My Name is Earl" Carter in 1976.

As was her own husband in 1992.  He didn't even compete in Iowa and came in second in New Hampshire.  Two pretty major defeats, and yet he was able to brilliantly reposition himself as the "Comeback Kid."

Voters have a way of resenting being taken for granted, of having their votes counted before they are cast, of being used.  Hillary is savoring her frontrunner status, as well she should.  But she should not count on it actually meaning much when voting begins.  In fact, she should take a page out of Bill's playbook and hope that she actually gets humiliated in the early voting so she can also be a "Comeback Kid."

Building her up, reinforcing her frontrunner status, buying into the coronation looks like it's helping her.  But on second thought (and with an eye to history)....perhaps all of the time the Republicans spent talking about her last night wasn't so stupid after all.

Liberal-on-Liberal Violence

Will Rogers once said, "I'm not a member of any organized party.  I'm a Democrat."

A story in today's Washington Post raises the curtain on just how much chaos there is among Democrats.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was asked by reporters about the anger of the liberal base over the Democrats' failure to end the war in Iraq. 

"Look," she said, her frozen smile turning into a frozen frown. "I had, for five months, people sitting outside my home, going into my garden in San Francisco, angering neighbors, hanging their clothes from trees, building all kinds of things---Buddhas?  I don't know what they were---couches, sofas, chairs, permanent living facilities on my front sidewalk."

Sounds like liberal heaven.  But wait!  There's more:

"If they were poor and they were sleeping on my sidewalk, they would be arrested for loitering, but because they have "Impeach Bush" across their chest, it's the First Amendment."

This is liberal-on-liberal violence.

Speaker Pelosi complained that antiwar liberals 1) invaded her private space, 2) ticked off her neighbors, 3) set up "protest camps" outside her home, 4) made her life inconvenient with their antics.  Of course, all of that was fine when they were doing it to President Bush outside his home in Crawford, Texas.

Furthermore.  I thought liberals embraced the downtrodden, but Pelosi wants to see those homeless folks sleeping on her sidewalk removed for loitering.

What would Jesus do?

She's also seething over a primary challenge against her by antiwar activist Cindy Sheehan.  She called Sheehan's and others' targeting of Democrats "a waste of time."

Again, the Democrats were more than happy to have the lefties' support when things were really grim in Iraq and they could use them as surrogates to beat up the president.  Now that Iraq is improving somewhat, the Democrats have nothing else in their repertoire, so they are turning on each other.  They made use of each other when things were bad for the nation and thus good for them.  Now they are throwing each other overboard faster than you can say "Jim McDougal."

Democrats notoriously shoot themselves in the foot.  George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry?  Their ability to commit political suicide astounds.  2008 was supposed to be a perfect political storm for them.  But even perfect storms weaken and fall apart.  Trouble in paradise never looked so good.