Mr. Right Now

Last night Mitt Romney won the Arizona primary handily and the Michigan one by three points over Rick Santorum. Romney improved on his showing from 2008, reversing a trend that had him running behind his own level of support from last time.

Romney seems to have regained his footing, at least in terms of having turned around the momentum. The Super Tuesday contests will put that to the test: 10 primaries in states as diverse as Ohio, Tennessee and Massachusetts. Romney is expected to fare well in many of them, mainly because he was either Governor there (MA) or because Newt Gingrich couldn't get it together to get on the ballot (VA). The biggest test for Romney will be Ohio, where he's running neck-in-neck with Santorum. Ohio, of course, is one of the biggest and most critical swing states in the general election, so any candidate has got to demonstrate strength and electability there.

And that brings us to why Mitt is pulling these contests out right now. Rasmussen Reports has a new poll showing Romney beating Obama. Granted, it's only by one point. But Rasmussen also shows Obama beating Santorum by three points. Again within the margin of error, but still. These polls reflect what a number of polls over the past few months have shown: that Romney can beat Obama, even if just marginally, while the others struggle to do so.

At this point, a lot of voters are focusing on the general election with the understanding that Job One is defeating Obama.

We don't have Mr. Right taking us to the Big Dance, so we're going to have to go with Mr. Right Now. And right now, he looks a lot like Mitt Romney.

Imus In The Morning

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The Next Round

Today voters in Michigan and Arizona go to the polls for the Republican presidential primary. Arizona is a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans can vote, and Mitt Romney has a comfortable lead there. Michigan, however, is an open primary, which means Democrats and Independents can vote as well as Republicans, which could cause chaos. Huge numbers of Democrats probably won't vote, but a few may, and in a tight race, they could have an impact. It's the conventional wisdom that if Romney can't win his home state, the doors will blow off the race, all Hades will break loose, and establishment Republicans will try to convince another candidate to enter the race.

That's a major overreaction. With Democrats poised to cause mischief in Michigan, anything could happen. If Romney loses there, yes the race will be upended, but it won't spell the end of his candidacy. And if he wins despite the Democrat mischief, then he'll have a stronger story to tell going forward into Super Tuesday. If Rick Santorum wins in Michigan, he'll have renewed momentum, but he'll also face a tall order going into next week's contests. Newt Gingrich doesn't expect to win either primary today, but a strong showing in either state could reposition him for Super Tuesday, which has a number of Southern contests in which he could do well. Ron Paul is hanging in with his sights set on influencing the party platform at the convention.

So, here we are, on the verge of March, and the GOP field is still a hot mess. But that's OK: hard-fought primaries make the ultimate nominee a stronger, tougher, more well-prepared and focused candidate. You've got to be able to take incoming from the other side if you're going to have any chance of surviving the incoming from the other side.

Michigan and Arizona: the deck is in your hands today. We're all watching to see how you shuffle and deal. You could essentially end the race today. Or not.

The O'Reilly Factor---TONIGHT!

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Margaret and Meryl

A few weeks ago, I went to see "The Iron Lady," starring Meryl Streep as the incomparable Margaret Thatcher. The movie is OK; not the greatest artistic vision of all time, but fine. It dwells too long on Thatcher's declining years and dementia and doesn't spend more than a few seconds showing how her conservative economic and tough foreign policies were later vindicated by a roaring British comeback. But the film also ably chronicles her rise to power and much of her tenure as Prime Minister as well as her lovely relationship with her husband Dennis.

The standout performance is, of course, Meryl Streep's. As with all of her roles, she simply became Thatcher. Watching her, you lose sight of Streep and get lost in the Iron Lady. It's quite simply a brilliant performance, for which she has won the Golden Globe and the Acadamy Award.

In both of her acceptance speeches, Streep was engaging and amusing, thanking everyone from her husband to the director and crew to her hair and makeup guys. She did not, however, thank the one person who was responsible for her standing on those stages, clutching those statuettes.

She did not thank Margaret Thatcher.

Streep is a famous leftwinger, so no one expected her to give a shout-out to Thatcher's successful policies. But a word or two for the woman who inspired her award-winning role would have been the classy and correct thing to do (after all, Thatcher is still alive and was probably watching last night).

Streep wouldn't do it. Or worse, she never thought about it. If Streep had won for playing, say, Eleanor Roosevelt or Madame Mao or Jackie Kennedy or Hillary Clinton, you KNOW she would have given THAT particular woman big thanks for the inspiration. But Thatcher, the great conservative leader, got nothing.

You would think that after playing a woman with such grace and class, Streep would have picked up a bit of those things. I suppose "Method Acting" only goes so far.

One Chart That Says It All

Via my friend Jim Pethokoukis at the American Enterprise Institute, here's a chart that shows why economic freedom is the best path to prosperity:

http://blog.american.com/2012/02/usa-vs-the-world-one-chart-that-shows-why-free-market-capitalism-is-the-best-path-to-prosperity/

Can we get an "Amen?"

The Final (?) Debate

I guest-hosted "Hannity" last night, so I couldn't see the last (?) Republican presidential debate in real time. I did, however, see the later replay.

Quick thoughts:

Mitt Romney gave a strong performance. Not his best debate showing, but strong enough that he has regained both his political confidence and dominant position vis-a-vis the other candidates. He was assertive, even combative at times, and frankly that's what we're going to need going up against Barack Obama. He helped himself last night by not hurting himself and holding his ground.

Rick Santorum began the evening shaky, defensive, and a little unsure of himself. He had a much better second half, particularly on the questions related to Iran and the Middle East. His problem is that he looked a bit run over by both Mitt and Newt. I think last night's performance made it more difficult to envision him as president.

Newt Gingrich had a terrific night. He seemed to return to his earliest debate roots, when he was relaxed and calm, tough, and focused on Barack Obama instead of beating up his GOP rivals. At the start of this process, he had nothing to lose and it showed in his fabulous debate performances. Last night, once again he looked like he had nothing to lose---and blew the roof off. I'm not sure that he can regain enough momentum at this point to come back, but stranger things have happened in politics. (See: Obama beating the Clinton machine.)

Ron Paul is Ron Paul: great on the Fed, inflation, monetary policy, spending and the debt, terrible on national security and foreign policy.

On Tuesday we shall see what the voters in Michigan and Arizona think. Fasten your seatbelts.

HOSTING HANNITY---TONIGHT!

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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

"Where are the jobs, Mr. President?" So wailed then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi when the unemployment rate was about 6 percent toward the end of President Bush's term.

Different president, same question. Only in Obama's case, staggeringly high unemployment, routinely over 9 percent, for years on end. And when the rate did drop, it was only because millions of people simply gave up looking for work and dropped out of the workforce all together.

Today, Gallup reports its latest unemployment findings:

"The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February," Gallup said in its mid-month unemployment survey, released on February 17. "The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.

"Gallup said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures.

"Gallup's mid-month figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so may not predict the official unemployment rate precisely. However, because Gallup and BLS both conduct their unemployment surveys at the same time - in the middle of the month - Gallup's early figures can provide a barometer of where the official rate is likely headed.

"The survey also found that "underemployment" - those unemployed and those working part-time because full-time jobs are unavailable - rose to 19 percent, up from the 18.7 percent Gallup found in January.

"Gallup said its report reflected a continuing trend of weakness in U.S. labor markets, marking a "sharp deterioration" in job market conditions."

In other words, the jobs picture is not improving, 13 million people remain out of work, and Obama's policies are as destructive as ever.

Where are the jobs, Mr. President?

The O'Reilly Factor--TONIGHT!

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