Rasmussen Reports released a poll today showing an interesting development in the Republican presidential field. Rasmussen puts Mitt Romney and Herman Cain in a tie for the lead, with both holding 29% of the GOP vote. But coming up in third place is not Rick Perry. Or Michele Bachmann. Or Ron Paul. Or Rick Santorum. Or Jon Huntsman.
No, the new third place candidate is...Newt Gingrich with 10% of the Republican vote.
A couple of things about this:
First: As of this moment, Cain and Romney are walking away with the race. With nearly 30% each, they are head and shoulders above every other candidate in terms of GOP voters' preferences right now. Newt, with his 10%, isn't even close. So let's maintain some perspective.
That said, here's the second point: Cain is rising because he's dynamite. He's got an incredible "only in America" personal story. He's a successful CEO. He's smart, dynamic, personable, warm, and funny. He commands a stage. He advocates for his positions in an unapologetic way. He looks like he's happy to be running, meeting everyday Americans, and engaging the big issues. Most importantly: he looks like he's running not simply to serve his own personal ambitions but for what he can do for the country. That simple point is not to be underestimated. It is one of the most profound reasons people vote for one candidate over another.
There is another reason for Cain's rise: many conservatives and other GOP voters simply don't trust Romney. If this election is going to largely about the economy, Romney has the advantage. If, however, this election is going to be about the economy AS WELL AS the proper size and scope of government, Romney suffers. As Governor of Massachusetts, witness how he viewed the role of government as he instituted government-run health care in that state. It is now bankrupting Massachusetts. And this week, we learned that some of his RomneyCare advisers were advising the ObamaCare team. Horrible. Romney is not exactly a small-government guy. That worries GOP voters. Hence, the Cain surge: Anybody But Romney, please----that's the refrain from many on the GOP side.
The surprise mini-surge by Newt seen in this Rasmussen poll suggests that he may be capitalizing on that sentiment as well. But there's something else here, which brings me to my third point: As we get closer to the general election campaign, voters are trying to visualize how it will go down. In less than 12 months, we will have already had at least one presidential debate. We're trying to picture the GOP candidate at a podium next to Barack Obama, he of the silver-tongue. More and more of us are coming to the conclusion that Newt---and ONLY Newt---could wipe the floor with Obama. He'd kill him politically with facts and conservatism. No other GOP candidate could destroy Obama in a debate so completely as Gingrich.
Does that mean he's going to vault into the top tier and give Romney and Cain a run for their money? I have no idea. Maybe he'll gain even more momentum and pull off a huge upset. Maybe this poll is just a burp, and he'll settle back down to 5-7%. But one thing is clear: GOP voters are worried about Romney's too-slick-by-half super-ambition and Cain's lack of political and national security experience. Newt may not come off as the most likeable guy, but he is the most serious conservative intellectual in this race. And his rhetorical skills are second to none.
The conventional wisdom is that Newt can't win a general election: too much baggage, too much weirdness, etc. That may be true. Then again, who would have thought that this race would be Romney vs. Cain in mid-October? And who would have thought that Obama could have smashed the Clinton machine to be the Democrat nominee in 2008?
This election cycle, anything can happen.
Newt had better be prepared. And so should we.